So far, this month has been very dry and sunny here in Edinburgh and in fact, we have already had more sunshine at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this month than the average for the entire month of November which means that whatever happens during the rest of this month, this month will officially go down as a sunnier than average here in the final statistics. With the way that things are going, this could well end up being the sunniest November on record here and with there still being not all that many signs of much in the way of significant rainfall in this part of the world, this month could also end up being one of the driest Novembers on record here in Edinburgh, if not the driest November on record, especially at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh where there has only been 5.8 mm of rain recorded during this month so far.
In terms of the temperature, our minimum temperatures are running a bit colder than average now, but our maximum temperatures are still running a bit warmer than average and when you balance everything out, you could just say that the overall temperatures during this month are around average during this month so far. If we want cold weather, I would rather be getting that during the winter. However, I have just been looking at things in the stratosphere which suggest that this is completely at odds with what is happening lower down in the troposphere. Quite often during the winter, we will often talk about the possibility of a stratospheric warming event and how that might increase the chances of colder weather further down the line if that percolates down into the troposphere and the reason why we talk about it in those terms is because in recent winters, we have been tending to start from a position where the tropospheric conditions have been more in favour of mild, wet and stormy weather.
In those circumstances, we would say that a SSW event doesn't always percolate down into the troposphere which leaves the possibility that tropospheric and stratospheric conditions can conflict with each other. In this scenario, we would have a troposphere which is still favouring mild weather conflicting with a stratosphere which is now favouring colder weather. What we have just now though is the exact opposite of that because at the moment, we have a cold stratosphere which is favouring mild, wet and stormy weather whereas the troposphere is still continuing to favour colder and drier conditions. Just as it is possible for a SSW event to percolate down into the troposphere and send us into a colder pattern of weather later on, I would assume that it would therefore be equally possible for the current cold stratospheric conditions to percolate down into the troposphere and send us into a much milder and more unsettled pattern of weather.
Of course, that might not necessarily end up happening so that just because we have that cold stratosphere doesn't necessarily mean that we won't get a cold winter in the end. However, our chances of getting a cold winter are surely not as good now as they would be if the stratosphere was much warmer. Because of that, it wouldn't surprise me if despite all of those other global factors (La Nina, the easterly QBO etc.) being in favour of us getting a cold winter, whatever small amount of cold weather which we get during this month ends up basically, being our "winter" just as what happened last year (that is also the exact opposite of what happened here six months ago when that really good weather which we had in May ended up being more or less, it for our summer). I can only hope though, that this doesn't end up being the case.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.